About BTC Cycle Bottom Radar

BTC Cycle Bottom Radar tracks three signals that have historically lined up with Bitcoin cycle bottoms — MVRV Z-Score, the Pi-Cycle Bottom indicator, and the CVDD floor — and shows you their current status for free, every day.

Why this exists

I built this because I wanted a single place to check these three signals without digging through multiple charting sites every time, and I'm using it myself to track my own Bitcoin purchases through this cycle. If it's useful to you too, that's a bonus.

How the data works

On-chain figures (MVRV Z-Score and CVDD) come from bitcoin-data.com. The Pi-Cycle Bottom indicator is calculated from daily BTC/USD closing prices (150-day EMA vs. 471-day SMA). These three values update once a day. The live BTC price you see ticking on the homepage streams directly from Coinbase and isn't affected by the daily update cycle.

Methodology, in brief

• MVRV Z-Score: compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized (on-chain cost-basis) value. Readings at or below zero have historically marked deep undervaluation.
• Pi-Cycle Bottom: watches for the 150-day EMA crossing below the 471-day SMA times a multiplier — a crossover that has lined up with past cycle lows.
• CVDD: a coin-age-weighted on-chain cost-basis floor that Bitcoin's price has rarely traded below.

The exact thresholds that count as “triggered” or “approaching” are visible on each indicator's page, along with how those readings have drifted from cycle to cycle — they are not fixed at the extreme values from the last cycle.

An honest disclaimer

These are historical patterns, not guarantees. Bitcoin's market structure has changed — most notably with the arrival of spot ETFs — and indicators that worked in past cycles may behave differently going forward. Nothing on this site is financial advice. Always do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Questions?

Reach out anytime at support@btc-bottom-signal.com.