The MVRV Z-Score is one of the most reliable on-chain gauges for spotting when Bitcoin is historically cheap or expensive. It compares Bitcoin's market value to its "realized value" — the aggregate price at which every coin last moved on-chain — and standardizes the gap so it can be compared across cycles.
At cycle bottoms the score has repeatedly fallen toward or below zero, meaning the market is priced near or under the average cost basis of all holders. At cycle tops it has spiked well above 7.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. Market value is Bitcoin's ordinary market capitalization — circulating supply multiplied by the current price. Realized value (or realized cap) is different: it values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then sums those values. In effect, realized value approximates the aggregate cost basis of the entire network — what holders, on average, actually paid.
The plain MVRV ratio is simply market value divided by realized value. The Z-Score refines this by subtracting realized cap from market cap and dividing by the standard deviation of market cap. That standardization strips out the scale of the number and the long-term price trend, leaving a comparable measure of how stretched price is from the network's cost basis at any point in the cycle.
How the MVRV Z-Score is calculated
MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ standard deviation of Market Cap.
When the score is high, market value sits far above the network's cost basis — holders are deep in profit and the market is historically overheated. When the score is low (near or below zero), market value has fallen to or beneath the average cost basis, meaning the average holder is at or below break-even — a condition that has historically clustered around major bottoms.
How it has marked Bitcoin cycle bottoms
Across past cycles, the MVRV Z-Score sank into its lowest band — roughly at or below zero — during the deepest points of bear markets: the early-2015 lows, the late-2018 to early-2019 capitulation, the March 2020 crash, and the late-2022 post-FTX bottom. Each time, the score returning from that band coincided with the start of a new accumulation phase.
Important caveat: the exact level that has marked each bottom drifts from cycle to cycle. The signal is best read as a zone of historically extreme undervaluation rather than a precise buy trigger — which is exactly why our dashboard lets you set your own threshold instead of hard-coding last cycle's extreme.