The Pi-Cycle Bottom indicator is a moving-average crossover designed to highlight when Bitcoin has entered a historically deep value zone. It is the bottom-finding counterpart to the well-known Pi-Cycle Top indicator.
It watches the relationship between a medium-term and a long-term moving average of price. When the shorter average falls far enough below the longer one, it has historically lined up with the late stages of bear markets.
What is the Pi-Cycle Bottom indicator?
The Pi-Cycle family of indicators was popularized for calling cycle extremes using two moving averages of Bitcoin's price. The Top version uses the 111-day moving average and a multiple of the 350-day moving average. The Bottom version flips the logic to find deep value instead of euphoria.
Our implementation tracks the 150-day exponential moving average (EMA) against the 471-day simple moving average (SMA). The EMA reacts faster to recent price; the SMA represents the slower, longer-term trend. The interplay between them describes how far price has fallen relative to its long-run trajectory.
How the Pi-Cycle Bottom signal is calculated
We compute the 150-day EMA and the 471-day SMA of Bitcoin's daily closing price. The bottom signal triggers when the 150-day EMA drops to or below the 471-day SMA multiplied by a factor of 0.745.
Intuitively, the trigger fires when recent price momentum has fallen steeply beneath the long-term trend — a sign of capitulation that, in past cycles, occurred near major bottoms. The status at the top of this page shows whether that condition is currently met, how close the two lines are, and updates daily.
How it has aligned with past cycle bottoms
In previous cycles, the moment the fast average crossed deeply below the scaled slow average tended to coincide with the exhaustion phase of a bear market, when selling pressure was nearing its end. As a crossover signal it is binary — it either has or hasn't triggered — which makes it a useful complement to continuous gauges like the MVRV Z-Score and the CVDD floor.
As with any historical indicator, the multiplier and the cycle structure can shift over time, and the ETF era may behave differently from past cycles. Treat it as one input among several, not a standalone timing tool.